Going to school, and dropping out

At 15 you choose a high school, and at 18 you go on to university, vocational school or a job. After university, some people go on to graduate school and a doctorate. And every year, a certain share of students leave school. The game runs all of this with probabilities that match MEXT statistics.

What decides whether you go to university

The likelihood of going to university is the product of the following factors.

• Prefecture: University enrollment rates by prefecture from MEXT's School Basic Survey (fiscal 2022, including graduates from earlier years).
• Sex and generation: Also from MEXT data, the university enrollment rate is 59.7% for men and 53.4% for women. In 1975 (Showa 50) it was 41.0% for men and 12.7% for women, reflecting how much lower women's enrollment was until recently.
• Family finances and academic ability: The lower your family's position and the weaker your grades, the less likely you are to go (the strength of this effect is an assumption).
• Type of high school: Your chances change depending on whether you attend a general academic course, a specialized or vocational course, or a part-time or correspondence school.

For people born outside the big cities, whether to leave for a university in Tokyo is another fork in the road. The share of students who leave home for a university in Tokyo is based on School Basic Survey enrollment figures by prefecture and home region. It is 40–50% in Saitama, Chiba and Kanagawa, mostly under 5% in the Kinki region, and under 10% in most Kyushu prefectures (read from charts, with an error of ±2–3 points).

Going on to graduate school and a doctorate

The share of undergraduates who go on to a master's program is based on 42% for men in science and engineering, 32% for women in science and engineering, 6% for men and 4% for women in the humanities and social sciences, 7% in medical fields and 8% in education, and is set lower for older generations. After a master's, 10% in science, engineering and medical fields go on to a doctorate, and 3% in the humanities and social sciences. After a PhD, people split between universities and research institutes (35%), companies (50%) and other paths (15%). Research jobs start as fixed-term positions (postdocs), and 40% can get a permanent post after 6 years. All of these shares are assumptions.

The share who drop out

The share of students who leave school is calculated by compounding the "annual dropout rate" from MEXT surveys over the years of study.

Reasons for dropping out are also drawn from the statistical breakdown. At universities and similar schools: transferring or changing course 22.0%, not fitting into student life or losing motivation 16.5%, getting a job or starting a business 14.4%, financial hardship 13.6%, poor grades 7.3%, mental illness 6.6%, and illness or injury 4.1%. At high schools: changing course 41.3%, not fitting into school life or studies 34.2%, and poor grades 6.8%.

When the dropout scene comes, you can choose to "hang in there and keep going." On auto, you drop out at the rate in the statistics. If you drop out, your highest level of education becomes the previous stage (high school graduate, if you left university), and you still owe repayment on student loans for the years you were enrolled. If you leave university because you "want to take a different path," you enroll in a vocational school instead (assumption).

What education changes

Your highest level of education affects your wages, your chance of becoming a regular (full-time permanent) employee and the industries you can work in. Wages by education are covered on the Work and wages page.

High school and university entrance exams

Your academic ability in the third year of junior high is converted into an approximate hensachi (standardized exam score), and you pick a first-choice school from four schools of different levels (a reach school, a good match, a safe school, and a vocational school or technical college). If you don't make it, you go to the private high school you applied to as a backup. Schools are shown at levels 1–4 (published hensachi estimates rounded into four bands). In Hokkaido, Aomori and Akita you choose from real high school names, and technical colleges (kosen) are real schools nationwide. Prefectures without data show a school's "standing within the prefecture." Schools are shown as they are today, so some schools and departments did not exist in earlier years.

For university, local universities and universities in the Tokyo area are listed from the names in MEXT's School Code List. Your chance of admission is a rough estimate based on your ability and family situation, and it uses in-game tiers built on well-known groupings (the former imperial universities, Waseda and Keio, and so on) and type of institution. It does not reflect actual hensachi or difficulty. If you don't make it, you go to the private university you applied to as a backup, or switch to vocational school or a job. The conversion to hensachi, the chance of admission and the university tiers are assumptions.

You can only choose universities that already existed in the year you enroll. Each university's founding year was taken from the department histories in MEXT's University List (real data; since "established" often refers to the date of approval, students can enroll from the following year). The 17 schools with no history found are treated as new or renamed in the 2020s, and renamed universities (Tokyo Institute of Technology → Institute of Science Tokyo; Kyoto Koka Women's University → Kyoto Koka University) appear under their old names in the years before the change.

Related: Where, and into what family, you are born / Work and wages

Next: Work and wages