Living as a TikToker

The real data and assumptions for unusual lives (chasing a dream, medical school and retaking entrance exams, elite private elementary schools, growing up in a company president's family, politicians, hairdressers, YouTubers, children raised in a religious group, immigrants and mixed-heritage children, yakuza, crime, alcohol) are listed on the explainer page "Unusual Lives". Births where one parent is a foreign national (Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Vital Statistics) and the number of foreign residents (Immigration Services Agency, Statistics on Foreign Residents) are real data; the chances of making it big, pass rates, election odds, incomes, and so on are assumptions.

Parts that use real data: life expectancy (Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Abridged Life Tables 2025); wages (Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, 2025 Basic Survey on Wage Structure, including graduate-school graduates, by sex, age, education, and employment type, and by prefecture); population by prefecture (Statistics Bureau of Japan, Population Estimates as of October 1, 2024); college enrollment rates and gender gaps by prefecture (MEXT, FY2022 School Basic Survey); the share of regular vs. non-regular employment and leaving work due to childbirth or childcare (Statistics Bureau of Japan, 2022 Employment Status Survey); the share of people who leave home for a university in Tokyo (MEXT, School Basic Survey, entrants by prefecture and home region; read from charts, with an error of ±2–3 points); the share of households that own land (Statistics Bureau of Japan, 2023 Housing and Land Survey, land tabulation, site-ownership rate; this is not the homeownership rate itself); the never-married rate at age 50 (Statistics Bureau of Japan, Population Census, as compiled in Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare materials); the average age at first marriage (husbands 31.0, wives 29.7) and the distribution of divorces by length of cohabitation (Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, 2025 Vital Statistics); the distribution of the number of children per couple (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, 16th Japanese National Fertility Survey); wages by industry, sex, and age (2025 Basic Survey on Wage Structure, Table 5-2; public servants are not covered, so values for compound services and other services are used instead); annual income by company size (National Tax Agency, 2025 Statistical Survey of Actual Status for Salary in the Private Sector, average salary by capital bracket); mortgage rates (3.25%), time-deposit rates (0.45%), inflation (1.8%), and changes in official land prices (residential land: three major metropolitan areas +3.5%, nationwide +2.1%, regional areas +0.9%; Japan Finance Corporation, Economic and Financial Data, September 2026 issue); the breakdown and average amount of savings, and savings by age of household head (Statistics Bureau of Japan, Family Income and Expenditure Survey, Savings and Liabilities, 2025); the share of take-home pay spent by working households (same survey, Income and Expenditure, 2025; average propensity to consume of 65.0% for worker households among households of two or more); the level of living costs by age (Statistics Bureau of Japan, 2024 National Survey of Family Income, Consumption and Wealth); the share of people who changed jobs within five years and the breakdown of reasons for leaving their previous job (Statistics Bureau of Japan, 2022 Employment Status Survey); pension amounts (Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, 2017 Survey on Old-age Pension Recipients, average amounts by sex; the full old-age basic pension from the Japan Pension Service); retirement allowances at mandatory retirement and the share of companies with a retirement allowance system (Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, 2023 General Survey on Working Conditions, average retirement benefits per mandatory retiree by education and years of service, and the share of companies with a system by company size). The share of people born into households in relative poverty, and the share born into single-parent households and their poverty rate (Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Summary Report of the 2025 Comprehensive Survey of Living Conditions: the child poverty rate, the poverty rate of working-age households with children and only one adult, and the share of households with children that consist only of a single parent and unmarried children; for each generation, we average the values from the survey years that fall in their childhood). The share of students who drop out and the breakdown of reasons (high school: MEXT, FY2024 Survey on Problem Behavior, School Non-attendance, and Other Student Guidance Issues, dropout rate of 1.4%, and the share by reason; universities, junior colleges, and graduate schools: MEXT, FY2025 Survey on Students Who Dropped Out or Took Leave, universities 1.97%, junior colleges 3.82%, master's 2.22%, doctoral 2.94%, and the share by reason; in all cases the annual rate is compounded over the years of enrollment). The chance of being injured in a traffic accident (National Police Agency, Trends in Traffic Accidents 1948–2020, White Paper on Crime Victims 2021–2024, and National Police Agency figures for 2025; the number of injured people each year divided by the population); the chance of becoming a crime victim (National Police Agency, Crime Situation in 2025: reported cases of bicycle theft, burglary, fraud, assault, and bodily injury divided by the population, adjusted up or down each year by the trend in reported Penal Code offenses; the trend for 1989–2018 is read from charts); the average loss from fraud (fraud losses ÷ reported cases in the same source = about ¥5.55 million); the chance of being arrested or taken into protective guidance for delinquency as a teenager (Ministry of Justice, White Paper on Crime 2017: juvenile delinquency rates by birth year, rates per population by age group, and the share of girls); the share of people who smoke (Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, 2024 National Health and Nutrition Survey, habitual smokers: men 24.5%, women 6.5%); the average life expectancy in the life map and the survival curve (Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Abridged Life Tables 2025); the basis for depicting single parents as mothers (the number of mother-child and father-child households in the Comprehensive Survey of Living Conditions); names for each birth year (Meiji Yasuda Life Insurance, Popular Names by Birth Year, the top 10 for each year); family names (the top 5 family names in your birth prefecture and their shares from Meiji Yasuda Life Insurance's National Surname Survey, 2013; otherwise in proportion to the number of people with each of the top 500 family names nationwide; the numbers are estimates). These real data are calibrated so that the simulation's results come close to the age-specific values in the same statistics. The values used for calibration (bonus and overtime additions, the chance of moving from non-regular to regular employment, the chance of leaving work after childbirth, and so on) are assumptions without a source. All other values are rounded approximations based on official statistics, including: the share of people who work in each industry and company size; the shares choosing humanities vs. sciences; the wage premium for science and engineering (+4%) and the discount for education and the arts (−3%); the rates of going on to graduate school (master's) and doctoral programs; the shares of post-PhD career paths and the chance of a postdoc landing a permanent position (40%); age differences in how easy it is to change jobs, and the additions for non-regular workers and women; the shares of people whose wages go up, stay the same, or go down after changing jobs, and by how much; the chance of moving from non-regular to regular employment (about 40%); expected returns and volatility for stocks (5% nominal, 14% volatility), bonds (1.5%), and real estate investment (4%, 10% volatility); the scenario design limiting job-change decisions to three in a lifetime; returns on life insurance and the like; using the average of managerial, clerical, and technical jobs and manual jobs for the retirement allowance of high school graduates; making retirement allowances for under 20 years of service proportional to years of service; the mapping to company-size categories and the share of small family businesses with a retirement allowance system (50%); the share of the surplus (take-home pay minus spending) that does not remain as savings (15% under age 40, 65% in your 40s, 55% at 50 and over, plus 20 points for unmarried people; this stands for spending and drawdowns that statistics struggle to capture, such as cars, down payments, education costs, and support for children and parents, and was set to match savings by age in the Family Income and Expenditure Survey and the financial assets of single-person households in the Japan Financial Literacy and Education Corporation's Survey of Household Finances, 2024); how a home's value is split between land and building, and the building's depreciation (building share of 50–60% when new, 3% per year); paying off any remaining mortgage at retirement with the retirement allowance and other funds; applying the 65% average propensity to consume to single-person households too; applying 1985–86 values for poverty and single-parent rates to generations whose childhood came before 1985, when no statistics exist; treating the share of single-parent households as the share of children (single parents living in three-generation households are not included); how strongly the national position of non-poor households is tilted by the prefecture's income level; how far the position of non-poor single-parent households is shifted lower; differences in dropout likelihood by family finances; using the junior-college dropout rate for vocational schools; assuming dropout rates don't change across generations; having people who drop out of university because they "want to take a different path" re-enroll in a vocational school; using high school graduate wages for junior high school graduates (junior high graduate wages are not yet included); the amounts, probabilities, share chosen under Auto, and effects on health and mood of this year's focus and small decisions (hobbies, pets, school clubs, cars, helping relatives, the way home from a drinking party, risky invitations, moving to the countryside, a word of thanks, a wavering heart); the size of smoking's effect on health; your spouse's personality and job; the weighting that makes higher-ranked names among the top 10 more likely to be chosen; limiting family names to your prefecture's top 5 and the national top 500, and how they are combined (names outside the top 5 are chosen based on national shares, capped at the share of that prefecture's 5th-ranked name); women taking their husband's family name when they marry; the parents' ages and the type of home in family scenes; assuming the likelihood of traffic injuries doesn't change with age; counting each incident as one victim; assuming the mix of offense types doesn't change by year; treating crime levels before the Heisei era as the same as in 1989; using the juvenile delinquency rate as the chance of being arrested in that year (since re-arrests of the same person aren't distinguished, the share arrested at least once in a lifetime comes out on the high side); applying age-group values to generations without birth-year values; the size of the effects of accidents, victimization, and delinquency on health, mood, and money; the median loss from fraud (¥1 million); the share of people who divorce (about 30%); the division of property at divorce; the survivor's pension added to women's pensions; rent and home prices; and living costs by household size. The net-worth line on the graph is smoothed with a three-year average (including the year before and after) so that yearly swings from investing don't make it hard to read (the net worth shown as a number is the value for each year). Amounts on screen are in today's money, with inflation removed (think of ¥1 million as ¥1 million today, not ¥1 million 100 years from now). This is not a prediction of anyone's future. From 2027 onward, figures are estimates that assume current statistical levels continue. For analytics, we send information about page views and interactions (how far you've progressed in a life, the decisions shown and chosen, use of the share buttons, and so on, including device and browser information and a cookie-based identifier) to Google Analytics (Google LLC). We use it to improve the service, and we never send the text you type (short notes, your answers during breathers, or names). 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